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Writer's pictureParisa Erfani

Analysis: Impact of This Year’s Immigration Levels Plan on Express Entry Candidates' Success



Canada's latest Immigration Levels Plan introduces key changes that will affect foreign nationals seeking permanent residence through the Express Entry system.


The Plan allocates a greater number of permanent residency spots for Express Entry candidates in 2025, creating new opportunities for some applicants.


Two groups of candidates are set to benefit most from these adjustments:


1. Candidates already in Canada; and

2. Candidates eligible for category-based draws.


However, candidates who do not fall into these focused categories may face increased difficulty in securing an Invitation to Apply (ITA) through Express Entry in 2025.


Increase in Express Entry Allocation


Despite a 20% overall reduction in the federal government's target for permanent resident admissions in 2025, the allocation for Express Entry has actually been increased:

Target Year

2025 Target – Current Plan

2025 Target – Previous Plan

2024 Target – Previous Plan

Total

124,680

117,500

110,770


The 2025 target of 124,680 for the combined categories of In-Canada Focus and Economic Priorities reflects an increase from both the 2024 target and last year’s 2025 target.


In the 2024 Immigration Levels Plan, IRCC set a target of 110,770 for the Federal High Skilled (FHS) category, which includes the three Express Entry-managed federal programs:

the Canadian Experience Class (CEC), the Federal Skilled Worker Program (FSWP), and the Federal Skilled Trades Program (FSTP). Last year's plan set a 2025 target for FHS of 117,500.


With the increased 2025 target of 124,680, candidates applying through Express Entry-managed programs can expect a higher number of Invitations to Apply (ITAs) compared to 2024.


Prioritization of Candidates in Canada


This year’s Immigration Levels Plan introduces a new In-Canada Focus category for economic immigration within Express Entry-managed programs.


As a result, candidates currently residing in Canada can expect a boost in their chances of receiving an ITA in 2025. For this category, IRCC has set a target of 82,980, which accounts for about 42% of the federal economic immigration target of 197,650 (this total excludes Quebec’s targets, which are separately managed).


In contrast, candidates applying from overseas through the FSWP or FSTP may face more difficulty in receiving ITAs, given the increased prioritization of in-Canada candidates.


Prioritization of Category-Based Draws


In this year’s Immigration Levels Plan, IRCC has set a target of 41,700 permanent residence admissions under a category called Federal Economic Priorities, which is part of the Express Entry-managed programs.


CIC News anticipates that IRCC will use the existing system of category-based draws, first introduced in May 2023, to implement the Economic Priorities category.


Category-based draws allow IRCC to issue Invitations to Apply (ITAs) to Express Entry candidates who hold occupations that align with Canada’s labour market needs.


Current categories include:

  • French-language proficiency

  • Healthcare occupations

  • Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) occupations

  • Trade occupations

  • Transport occupations

  • Agriculture and agri-food occupations


For 2025, the federal government has specifically highlighted the following as priority categories:

  • Healthcare occupations

  • Trade occupations

  • French-language proficiency


Candidates who qualify for these category-based draws may have a higher chance of receiving an ITA in 2025.


To be eligible for a category-based draw, candidates typically need to have at least six months of full-time work experience (or the equivalent in part-time work) in an eligible occupation over the past three years.


History of In-Canada Focus


On March 21, 2024, Immigration Minister Marc Miller announced IRCC's intention to prioritize domestic draws, aimed at helping temporary residents in Canada transition to permanent residency.


From May to October 2024, IRCC held eight Canadian Experience Class (CEC) draws, issuing 25,700 ITAs. Since April 23, 2024, there has been no general draw.


Additionally, IRCC aims to reduce the percentage of temporary residents in Canada from its current level of approximately 7% of the population to 5% by 2026.


History of Category-Based Draws


In 2024, IRCC conducted numerous category-based draws, as follows:

Category

Number of Draws

Number of ITAs

Agriculture and agri-food

1

150

French-language proficiency

9

21,400

Healthcare

2

7,250

STEM

1

4,500

Trade

2

3,600

Transport

1

975


This year’s Immigration Levels Plan reaffirms IRCC’s commitment to category-based draws for 2025 and suggests that healthcare, trade occupations, and French-language proficiency may see an even greater number of draws and ITAs in the coming year.


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