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Canada to Reduce Immigration by 20% in 2025

Writer's picture: Parisa ErfaniParisa Erfani


Canada is reducing its targets for the admission of permanent and temporary residents.


Permanent Resident Targets


In the Immigration Levels Plan released on October 24, the government announced a reduction in permanent resident admission targets for the next three years:

  • 2025: 395,000, down from the 485,000 target for 2024 and the previously announced 500,000 target in the 2024-2026 Immigration Levels Plan.

  • 2026: 380,000, reduced from the 500,000 target in the same plan.

  • 2027: 365,000.


Despite an overall reduction in immigration, the government is increasing the focus on economic immigration. The economic immigration target for 2025 has decreased by only 17%, from 281,000 to 232,000, with over 40% of economic immigrants expected to come from temporary residents already in Canada.


The government has outlined the following breakdown of permanent resident admissions for the next three years:

Immigration Category

2025

2026

2027

Total PR admissions and ranges

395,000 (367,000 - 436,000)

380,000 (352,000 - 416,000)

365,000 (338,000 - 401,000)

French-speaking admissions outside of Quebec

8.5% (29,325)

9.5% (31,350)

10% (31,500)

Economic Immigration

232,150 (215,000 - 256,000)

229,750 (214,000 - 249,000)

225,350 (207,000 - 246,000)

Family Reunification

94,500 (88,500 - 102,000)

88,000 (82,000 - 96,000)

81,000 (77,000 - 89,000)

Refugees, Protected Persons, Humanitarian and Compassionate, and Other

68,350 (63,500 - 78,000)

62,250 (56,000 - 71,000)

58,650 (54,000 - 66,000)

In an unusual move, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau led the announcement, which is typically handled by the Immigration Minister. He emphasized the importance of immigration to Canada’s economy, stating, "It's made our economy the envy of the world."


Canada’s Immigration Policy Update


Both Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Immigration Minister Sean Fraser reiterated Canada’s commitment to supporting immigration.


Reductions in Provincial Nominee Program Targets

This year’s Immigration Levels Plan has cut the targets for Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) admissions by approximately 50%:

  • 2025: 55,000, down from 110,000 for 2024 and 120,000 for 2025.

  • 2026: 55,000, reduced from the 120,000 target in last year’s plan.

  • 2027: 55,000.


This shift marks a significant change in federal immigration policy regarding PNPs.


Increase in Federal High-Skilled Economic Immigration

The federal government is allocating a larger share of economic immigration to high-skilled programs managed through Express Entry. While PNP targets have been significantly reduced, federal high-skilled (FHS) targets have actually increased:

  • 2025: 124,680, up from last year's targets of 110,770 for 2024 and 117,500 for 2025.

  • 2026: 123,230, increased from last year's target of 117,500.

  • 2027: 118,730.


These numbers were derived from summing the "Federal Economic Priorities" and "In-Canada Focus" categories from this year’s supplementary information, excluding Federal Business figures.


Increase in French-Speaking Immigrants Outside Quebec

The government will continue to raise the targets for French-speaking immigrants settling outside Quebec as a percentage of overall permanent residence admissions:

  • 2025: 8.5%

  • 2026: 9.5%

  • 2027: 10%


Temporary Resident Levels

This year’s plan also introduces targets for temporary resident admissions, a first in recent plans. Following significant changes to Canada’s immigration system, the government aims to reduce temporary resident levels as a percentage of the population from 7% to 5% by the end of 2026.


The proposed breakdown for temporary resident admissions over the next three years is as follows:

Temporary Resident (TR) Category

2025

2026

2027

Total TR Arrivals and Ranges

673,650 (604,900 - 742,400)

516,600 (435,250 - 597,950)

543,600 (472,900 - 614,250)

Workers

367,750

210,700

237,700

Students

305,900

305,900

305,900

The significant drop in worker admissions from 2025 to 2026 is largely due to a reduction in work permits issued under the International Mobility Program (IMP), which has a target of 285,750 for 2025 and only 128,700 for 2026. The Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) will maintain a steady issuance of 82,000 work permits annually for the next three years.


The government anticipates that transitions from temporary to permanent residency—through pathways like the Canadian Experience Class (CEC) Express Entry draws and provincial nominee programs—will help decrease the temporary resident population percentage.


2024 Cap on Study Permit Applications

On January 22, IRCC announced a cap on international student admissions, aimed at managing the growing number of foreign nationals on study permits. Initially a temporary measure, the cap will restrict the issuance of new study permits to 360,000 in 2024, now expanded to also include master's and PhD students.


To align with these changes, IRCC has modified eligibility criteria for Post-Graduation Work Permits (PGWPs). As of September, international students in programs with curriculum-licensing agreements will no longer qualify for PGWPs.


Reforms to the Temporary Foreign Worker Program

The TFWP has faced recent scrutiny. During the announcement on October 24, Trudeau criticized businesses for "exploiting cheap foreign labor" and emphasized the need for reform.


Earlier this year, the government halted processing of labor market impact assessments (LMIAs) for low-wage streams in areas with high unemployment rates and limited work permits to one year for this stream, down from two years.


Expected Reductions in Study Permits and PGWPs

On September 18, Miller projected significant reductions over the next three years:

  • 300,000 fewer study permits

  • 175,000 fewer PGWPs

  • 150,000 fewer spousal open work permits


These changes include limiting PGWPs to graduates from programs linked to in-demand jobs and imposing new language test requirements.


Overview of the Immigration Levels Plan

The Immigration Levels Plan is the government’s official framework for communicating its immigration strategy. Each year’s plan includes targets for the upcoming year and the subsequent two years. While the targeted number of new permanent residents has decreased, 2025 targets still exceed pre-pandemic levels.


The plan does not account for all foreign nationals staying in Canada long-term, such as asylum seekers or individuals on super visas.


Rationale for Changes

Miller characterized these changes as a "middle-of-the-road" approach, asserting, "we have a controlled immigration plan that we can be proud of." Trudeau suggested that the adjustments were politically motivated, stating, "We're focused on winning the next election."



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