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Writer's pictureParisa Erfani

IRCC Projects Future Outflows of Work and Study Permit Holders



Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) anticipates that over half a million Non-Permanent Residents (NPRs) will either leave Canada or transition to permanent residence (PR) status by the end of this year.


The term NPR includes individuals in Canada on temporary statuses, such as work and study permit holders. It’s important to note that while IRCC has confirmed targets for 2025, future targets may be subject to change and will be finalized by November 1st of the previous year.


Additionally, Canada’s immigration department has shared projections for the number of new NPRs expected to be welcomed over the next three years, as IRCC works toward its objective of maintaining NPR levels at 5% of Canada’s total population.


NPR can also refer to:


- Asylum claimants

- Protected persons

- Dependents of any identified category (including work permit holders, study permit holders, asylum claimants, and protected persons).


What NPR Outflows Does IRCC Expect This Year and Over the Next Three Years?


According to Canada’s Annual Report on Immigration for 2024, IRCC projects that 588,409 Non-Permanent Residents (NPRs) will leave Canada or transition to permanent residence (PR) status by the end of 2024.

Although the department plans to reduce NPR levels in the coming years, it still anticipates a net increase of 299,216 NPRs by the end of 2024, bringing the expected total to approximately 2.9 million NPRs, which represents 7.1% of Canada’s total population.


Projected NPR Outflows Over the Next Three Years:

Year

Total NPR Outflows

Net Change in NPR Numbers

NPR Population

NPRs as % of Canadian Population

2025

1,262,801

-445,901

2,515,099

6.1%

2026

1,104,658

-445,622

2,069,477

5.0%

2027

875,179

17,439

2,086,916

5.0%

Expected NPR Inflows for the Next Three Years


The Annual Report on Immigration for 2024 also outlines anticipated NPR inflows for the next three years, projecting a total of 887,625 new NPRs in Canada by the end of the year.


Projected NPR Inflows Over the Next Three Years:

"

Non-permanent Resident (NPR) Measures

2025

2026

2027

Total NPR inflows

816,900

659,036

892,568

NPR inflows subject to targets for students and workers

673,650

516,600

543,600

NPR inflows for contingency reserves

143,250

142,436

348,968

Number of new work permit holders through the International Mobility Program (IMP)

285,750

128,700

155,700

Number of new work permit holders through the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP)

82,000

82,000

82,000

Number of new study permit holders

305,900

305,900

305,900

"

Work permits issued under the International Mobility Program (IMP) may include various pathways, such as:


  • Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP) Program

  • International Experience Class (IEC) Program

  • Agreements like CUSMA, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and CETA

  • Intra-Company Transfer Program

  • Significant Benefit Work Permit Program


The Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) may encompass streams such as:

  • High-wage, Low-wage, Agriculture, and In-Home Caregiver

  • Seasonal Agriculture Worker Program

  • Global Talent Stream


IRCC’s Actions to Achieve NPR Targets


To address NPR levels, Canada’s immigration department has implemented several measures, including:


  • Introducing language and field of study requirements for PGWP applicants starting November 1, 2024

  • Making the international student cap a permanent element of Canada’s immigration system

  • Increasing wage requirements for the high-wage stream of the TFWP

  • Limiting eligibility for Spousal Open Work Permits for spouses of international students

  • Prioritizing an “In-Canada Focus” in the Express Entry system

  • Temporarily halting Labour Market Impact Assessments (LMIAs) for low-wage stream applications in regions with a 6% or higher unemployment rate

  • Ending the COVID-era policy allowing visitor visa holders to apply for job-specific work permits

  • Concluding flag poling services for PGWP candidates and imposing further restrictions on flag poling at Canadian ports of entry.


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