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What We Know About the Upcoming Immigration Levels Strategy

Writer's picture: Parisa ErfaniParisa Erfani


From now until November 1, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) will present the Immigration Levels Plan for 2025-2027.


Traditionally, this plan outlines the target number of permanent residents Canada aims to welcome in the upcoming year, along with preliminary targets for the following two years, covering a total of three years.


This plan influences not only Canada’s immigration goals but also shapes the country's population growth, which in turn affects social systems, taxation, housing costs, healthcare, and labor market expansion.


This year will be different, as Immigration Minister Marc Miller announced last March that temporary residents—including those on work and study permits and visitor visas—will be included in the Immigration Levels Plan for the first time.


In 2023, Canada had over 2.5 million temporary residents, representing 6.2% of the population. Miller stated that the upcoming plan aims to reduce the number of temporary residents to 5% of Canada’s population over the next three years.


While the exact number of temporary residents to be welcomed in the coming years has not been finalized, a review of announcements made throughout the year may provide insights into IRCC's future plans and their potential impact on the upcoming Immigration Levels Plan.


Study Permits


In January, IRCC announced a cap on the number of study permits it would process for international students. The department projected that it would handle 606,000 study permit applications, with an anticipated approval rate of 360,000. This represents a 35% decrease in the number of permits processed compared to 2023.


This announcement came as a surprise, especially since the minister had previously expressed his opposition to setting caps or targets, particularly for Canada’s international student program.


According to the minister, international students made up 42% of Canada’s temporary residents in 2023.


In September, the minister announced a further reduction in the number of study permits processed in 2025, lowering the target to 437,000. Notably, master’s and PhD students, who were previously exempt, will now be included in this cap.


Open Work Permits


Alongside the cap on study permits, IRCC has indicated plans to decrease the number of Post-Graduation Work Permits (PGWPs) and Spousal Open Work Permits (SOWPs) issued over the next three years.


The department has introduced new eligibility requirements for PGWP applicants. Specifically, university graduates must demonstrate a Canadian Language Benchmark (CLB) score of at least 7, while college graduates need a CLB score of 5.


In his comments last month, the minister projected that these changes to PGWP eligibility could lead to 175,000 fewer permits issued over the next three years.


Changes to the SOWP are also expected to reduce the number of temporary residents by approximately 50,000 during the same period. Spouses of international master’s students will now only be eligible for a SOWP if their spouse’s master’s program is 16 months or longer or if they are enrolled in a program deemed critical or in demand by IRCC.


Spouses of highly skilled, specialized workers will still qualify for SOWPs. However, the minister noted that this new criterion is expected to contribute to a further reduction of 100,000 open work permits issued over the next three years.


In total, IRCC anticipates issuing 325,000 fewer open work permits over the next three years.


Closed Work Permits


Recent announcements have clarified how employers can utilize the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP).


Minister of Employment, Workforce Development and Official Languages, Randy Boissonnault, has introduced several changes to employer eligibility for the TFWP. Notably, employers can no longer hire more than 10% of their total workforce through this program. Additionally, the maximum employment duration for workers in the Low-Wage stream has been reduced from two years to one year.


While exceptions apply, IRCC will not process low-wage Labour Market Impact Assessments (LMIAs) from employers located in Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) with an unemployment rate exceeding 6%. The Minister did not provide an estimate of how these changes might affect the number of temporary foreign workers in Canada.


Minister Boissonnault has expressed concerns about Canadian employers' "addiction" to the TFWP, emphasizing that the program was intended to be a last resort.


Permanent Residents


The Immigration Levels Plan for 2024-2026 aims to welcome 500,000 permanent residents to Canada in 2025, with the same target set for 2026.


Permanent residents can enter Canada through various pathways, including economic immigration, family class sponsorship, refugees and protected persons, and humanitarian programs.


Recently, Minister Miller stated that all options are being considered regarding the number of permanent residents Canada will admit in the coming years, and that any changes will be “significant.” He mentioned he is contemplating a shift in the “type of immigration Canada is supporting.”


Currently, 60% of immigration to Canada is focused on economic immigrants—skilled workers who are expected to integrate into the workforce and contribute to the economy. The minister told CTV News last summer that this level is “unprecedented” compared to many other countries.


Where Is This Coming From?


As Canada’s population continues to grow, concerns have been raised about the impact of newcomers on the limited supply of affordable housing and the added strain on an already stretched healthcare system.


These two issues are expected to play a significant role in the upcoming federal election, as highlighted in the 2023 Environics Institute report on Canadian support for immigration.


The report noted a marked decline in support for immigration among Canadians compared to 2022, with many expressing uncertainty about the projected high levels of immigration in the years ahead. However, very few respondents reported negative feelings towards immigrants themselves.


Minister Miller has emphasized the need to “rein in” the number of temporary residents, particularly international students, to protect vulnerable newcomers from exploitation by bad actors. Many of these individuals are often victims of scams or do not receive the necessary support to succeed after arriving in Canada.


Despite these concerns, both Miller and Boissonnault consistently highlight the cultural benefits of immigration. They note that immigration is responsible for nearly all of Canada’s labor force growth and caution against the risk of “overcorrecting” the current approach.


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